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The
Minister's Final Decision Snapper 2 (SNA 2 - Central (East))
For SNA
2 I have decided to set a TAC of 450 tonnes. Within this,
I have decided to increase the TACC from 252 to 315 tonnes,
and make the following allowances: 14 tonnes to customary
Maori, 90 tonnes to recreational fishing, and 31 tonnes for
other sources of mortality attributable to fishing.
The new
assessment for SNA 2 indicates that the stock has rebuilt
strongly since the 1980s, and is currently estimated to be
around 10% below the desired target level (BMSY). It is predicted
to be at or above the target level under most catch scenarios
in the next 3-5 years. However, I am aware that the assessment
needs to be considered with caution, as no indices of biomass
are available for the assessment model. Further, the model
has had limited information on the size of the recreational
catch built into it at this point in time.
The forward projections from the stock assessment model were
based on a catch of 436 tonnes. I concluded that the level
of the TAC should be consistent with the 436 tonnes used in
the model projections. I settled on a TAC of 450 tonnes, after
including an allowance for the customary catch that is not
provided for in the model.
Having
set the TAC, I considered the allowances that the Act requires
me to make before setting or varying the TACC. In situations
where a stock is rebuilding and information suggests that
larger catches are possible, my general view is that all sectors
should benefit from the rebuild. It was for this reason that
I did not favour the option in the MFish IPP that would have
incorporated all the additional catch into the TACC. I considered
it appropriate that in this important recreational fishery
the additional catch should also be reflected in the non-commercial
allowance setting process.
There
is a high level of uncertainty regarding the recreational
catch in general, and the recreational SNA 2 catch in particular.
The 1996 survey estimated the recreational SNA 2 catch to
be 40 tonnes, whereas the preliminary catch estimate for SNA
2 from the 2000 survey is much higher. The difference between
the surveys appears largely attributable to the estimates
of how many people in the population are likely to have fished
in a year. MFish has engaged an international expert to audit
the survey methodology for the 1996 and 2000 surveys to assess
the reliability of this information. I am hopeful that this
process will assist in defining inputs into future runs of
the SNA 2 model.
In the
meantime, uncertainty calls for caution. After considering
the available information, I decided on a recreational allowance
of 90 tonnes, which is midway between the 80 to 100 tonnes
I originally proposed. I have set the Maori customary allowance
at 14 tonnes (around 15% of the recreational allowance), consistent
with the customary allowance set in the other snapper fisheries.
I allowed for the estimate of other forms of mortality caused
by fishing used in the assessment model (31 tonnes) and then
increased the TACC to 315 tonnes.
I note
that commercial fishers largely take snapper in QMA 2 as a
bycatch of the larger target trawl fisheries for tarakihi
and red gurnard. Partly as a consequence of these target fisheries,
the commercial fleet has routinely exceeded the current SNA
2 TACC of 252 tonnes in recent years. However, for the current
year, the new catch balancing system appears to have prevented
the large historical overcatch of the SNA 2 TACC. The commercial
SNA 2 catch is predicted to not greatly exceed the 252 tonnes
TACC based on the total catch up until the end of June. I
am pleased with this initial result. It indicates that the
new system is working effectively, and gives me confidence
that the new TACC will not be exceeded in future years. I
note that extrapolations based on current catch patterns suggest
that a TACC of 315 tonnes is unlikely to constrain the target
tarakihi and gurnard fisheries in area 2.
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